The Southern Regional Load Despatch Centre (SRLDC) and the Southern Regional Power Committee (SRPC) report that power demand in the Southern Region (SR) has reached approximately 65,000 MW. According to the minutes of the 234th Operation Coordination Sub-Committee (OCC) meeting, regional demand is expected to increase further, likely reaching its seasonal maximum during the March/April 2026 period.
Technical Analysis: Forecast Accuracy and Grid Performance Metrics
Technical evaluations of electricity demand forecasting and grid stability for the recent operational period utilize Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to quantify precision. Performance results and grid frequency data are as follows:
- Forecasting Accuracy (ARIMA Model Evaluation): Under experimental conditions using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method for peak load, the ARIMA(5,1,0) model recorded a MAPE of 2.15%, while the ARIMA(2,0,1) model achieved a MAPE of 1.91%. Both results are classified within the “Very Good” category (MAPE < 10%).
- Grid Frequency Profile (December 2025): The regional grid operated within the Indian Electricity Grid Code (IEGC) frequency band (49.90 Hz – 50.05 Hz) for 77.4% of the time. The frequency remained above 50.05 Hz for 16.53% and below 49.9 Hz for 6.07% of the period.
- Frequency Extremes: The maximum instantaneous frequency recorded was 50.42 Hz, with a minimum recorded value of 49.47 Hz.
- Renewable Energy Integration: The maximum instantaneous Renewable Energy (RE) penetration reached 47% on December 11, 2025.
Historical Demand Trends
The current demand levels reflect a consistent upward trajectory in regional load requirements. On December 31, 2025, the Southern Region recorded a peak demand of 64,328 MW. This figure represents an 11.95% year-on-year (YoY) increase compared to the December 2024 peak of 57,460 MW.
On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the total demand grew by approximately 14.13%, rising from 56,366 MW in November 2025 to the 64,328 MW peak in December. State-wise, Telangana recorded the most significant MoM increase in maximum demand at 30.97%, followed by Andhra Pradesh at 14.99%. This growth aligns with established seasonal trends where demand intensifies during the first quarter of the calendar year, coinciding with the low wind season and academic examination schedules.
The data and metrics contained in this report are sourced from the Southern Regional Load Despatch Centre (SRLDC) operational highlights and the official minutes of the 234th meeting of the Southern Regional Power Committee (SRPC) Operation Coordination Sub-Committee (OCC). Forecast accuracy metrics are derived from the January 2025 ARIMA method implementation study published in the Journal of System and Computer Engineering.
Leave a Comment